You might have learned a lot
about PTA, PDA & PPA. You may have heard in news about PDA done by Nepal
with India (Upper Karnali, Arun III). You might have heard about PTA as well.
You may have seen press conference on advantages & future aspects of PDA &
PTA, load shedding ending plans from Nepal government and you might also have
seen interviews from persona who are against these treaties. How much will we talk about individual relation? Even simple problem is to be solved after looking at correlation of different factors on output. Then,
why is there individuality on PTA & PDA? PTA may have a positive or negative
impact seen separately and so does PDA. Let’s think about their interrelation.
Today, we need around 3500 MW suppressed
electricity and we have 700 MW on this season. Even, 1600 MW is required to end
so called current load shedding at today’s date. We did PTA with India. Now
consider, India is ready to sell us additional 900 MW. Now 900 + 700 yields
1600. Will load shedding end? Will there be 24 x 7 electricity at our home? Won’t
we have to keep on checking whether all our devices are charged or not? Will
that day come, if India lends us 900 MW? The saddest portion is the answer to
that question, “NO”. Load shedding will not decrease but it will radically
increase. Consider some facts: only 40% population is connected through
national gird, cooking on electricity is cheaper than fuels and bio gas, we have
700 MW power developed by Diesel generators for irrigation purposes in terai
area. Won’t remaining population ask for electricity in coming 5 years? Won’t
we be cooking rice in rice cookers and using ovens when we have electricity and
supported by fact that cooking is cheaper on electricity (provided wisely
used). Won’t new industry open in next 2 years, if you have full electricity? Won’t
those diesel generators be replaced by electric generators and pumps? For all
these purpose, in today’s date, India will have to sell us 3000 MW electricity?
Will the country (India) which produces 15000 MW be able to sell us 3000 MW?
India is never a reliable seller in case of electricity as shown by our history.
And still, the major challenge will be, “Can our current economy buy 3000 MW?” As
the supply increases, demand also increases. But with PPA or PTA, supply ceases
after certain point, but the demand will of course be increasing. Then again
what? “LOAD SHEDDING”. PPA might be a short term solution but eventually, it
can’t end LOADSHEDDING.
The only thing which can is our
own resources. As stated earlier, the demand will rise, until around we reach
10,000 MW or even more as shown by research documents of professors of IOE, Pulchowk. And, difficulty again arises, when we
think we can’t build the world’s cheapest project, upper Karnali. As studied,
it will cost Rs.100/Watt for building that project. 4200 MW and just 2 km artificial
tunnel for that shows why upper karnali is termed as “Jewel of the Crown”. But,
we are doing PDA of upper karnali with India (GMR) and the project is being suppressed
to 900 MW. Many people replies with a line, “Something is better than nothing.”
But have we ever imagined, this something will increase load shedding more than
this after coming 10 years and we will have no resource to end load shedding
then. It may be true, PDA individually may end the energy crisis. But here, the
fact is PTA & PDA are paralleled. They say “Nepal will buy electricity from
India until Nepal produces more than sufficient for itself, excess would be
sold to India.” And they parallelly say, “PDA must be done.” With upper hand on
our major hydro resources, Upper Karnali, Arun III & Pancheswor, they ask
to sell when we have sufficient. Will we ever have sufficient, when our major
resources are being dropped from its full capacity to smaller capacity? Can we
ever sell electricity to India? PTA and PDA are not parallely possible. Since,
we have signed on both treaties, it is most dangerous seeing from a technical
eye for future perspective.
What does in total 2000 MW electricity
mean for India? Nothing. According to sources, they need 8 lakh MW in coming 10
years. So, electricity which we will be selling to them will be of no value to
them. But still, India (ND Modi) is referring towards doing both things parallely,
why? India doesn’t want electricity from Nepal. They want WATER from us. NM has
once said, “पानि , नानि और जवानी पाहाड के किसी काम का नहि।” This statement apparently was indirectly directed
towards our water. Don’t you believe? Then look at these stats: With Run of
River project, India doesn't have to pay nothing for Nepal. But with reservoir
project on upper karnali, they have to pay us 50 billion per year (1/10 th of
Nepal’s current Budget). They want that water for free. So, regardless of load shedding
on their country and our, they are eyeing on our water. Nepal’s electricity
will never be a aid for India by signing PTA & PDA together. If they are
built by Nepal, Upper Karnali alone can aid 100 billion to our economy whereas
when built by India, we will only get 4 billion as revenue. And when calculated,
we are giving 72 billion subsidies for GMR to build upper karnali (900MW) alone
whereas the total cost for 4200 MW project is 400 billion. Looking at another
way, power developed in Nepal will be purchased by India in low price
(Monopsony) and same electricity would be sold to Nepal in higher cost. So, we
are simply being made Foolish by India. Subsidies of 72 billion, just 4 billion
revenue per year, no payment for water and finally, we have to buy at higher
cost the same electricity. Then what’s the
point in doing PDA & PTA together? Aren’t we being foolish?
It’s now time to think. It’s now
time to act. We need to save our major projects like Upper Karnali, Arun III. It’s
now time to think. It’s now time to act.
(Many facts learned from Prof. Dr. Hari Prasad Pandit Sir & Ratna Sanchar Shrestha Sir)
